Basic HTML Version
www.ohiorestaurant.org
19
Fall 2012 Issue
PUBLIC POLICY
An Independent View of the 2012 Elections in Ohio
The Ohio Restaurant
Association (ORA) strives to
provide our members with
accurate, objective and
relevant information about
how government impacts
their business. Of course,
elections play a pivotal role in setting government policy.
For that reason, the ORA makes candidate endorsements
and through the Ohio Restaurant PAC, we provide financial
support to candidates we believe want to help our members
grow their business.
As the ORA Director of Government Affairs, you frequently
receive my analysis of Ohio elections. As part of this special
edition of à la Carte, I thought it might be useful to provide
you with an outside and, perhaps, more independent view of
the 2012 elections. To that end, I asked Mark Weaver, my
good friend, if I could interview him so he could share his
observations. Weaver is an award-winning national political
consultant and election law attorney. Over the last 28 years, he
has advised more than 700 political campaigns in 18 states.
The Youngstown Vindicator called him, “the most prominent
and successful political consultant in Ohio.” The Pittsburgh
Tribune-Review agreed, calling him, “among the top political
strategists in the country.”
Early in his career, Weaver was a communications director
with the Pennsylvania House of Representatives and ran
a Philadelphia-area political consulting firm. Later, as a
national communications consultant, he worked one-on-one
with Ronald Reagan. Weaver has advised many candidates
for governor, U.S. Senate, Congress and statewide offices. He
has also advised the GOP legislative caucuses in the Ohio
House, the Ohio Senate, the South Dakota Senate and the
Pennsylvania House.
The author of hundreds of campaign plans, Weaver has
supervised countless polls and focus groups and produced
nearly 2,000 television and radio commercials. He regularly
addresses conferences and seminars across America.
I first met Weaver in my last position when I hired him to
advise my association on messaging and again as a consultant
in a statewide ballot initiative. We also engaged his services
to train our officers in how to be interviewed by the media.
I was fortunate to be able to participate in that exercise and
can tell you that it is very humbling.
More recently, Weaver helped with the social media and
messaging component of the tourism coalition’s campaign to
successfully pass a new funding model to promote tourism
our great state. The ORA served as one of four members of
that coalition.
MASON
: Let’s start with the big one. Do you want
to make a prediction for how Ohio will vote for
president? What single factor will be most important
is determining whether Obama or Romney wins the
Buckeye State?
WEAVER
: In a narrow finish, Mitt Romney will win Ohio
and will also be our next President. If I’m correct, it will
be because the Republican effort to turn out its base
was more successful than the Democrat counterpart.
MASON
: Control of the United States Senate may well
hinge on Senator Sherrod Brown’s ability to hold off
State Treasurer Josh Mandel. What two issues do
you think will be most important to the independent
voters who will decide this race? Or, do you think it’s
all about presidential candidate coattails?
WEAVER
: There’s no doubt that U.S. Senate candidates
are affected by the presidential race. Having said
that, I think that Sherrod Brown has an uphill fight
in two ways. First, Ohioans are looking for a change
and Brown has been an officeholder for most of the
last four decades.
Second, he’s been rated as the
most liberal member of the U.S. Senate and, with
a few modern exceptions, Ohioans reject extreme
candidates for statewide office.
MASON
: With redistricting, Ohio lost two congressional
seats. Of the 16, two seem to stand out as close calls.
What does your crystal ball tell you about:
• Bill Johnson (R) v. Charlie Wilson (D) in
southeast Ohio, (a rematch from 2010)
• Jim Renacci (R) v. Betty Sutton (D) in northeast
Ohio (both are incumbent members of Congress)
WEAVER
: Full disclosure: Bill Johnson is a friend and
a client. But, even setting aside my personal feelings,
Johnson will easily defeat Wilson – perhaps by 7 or 8
points. The Renacci-Sutton race will be closer, but I
think Renacci wins that.
(Continued on page 20)
Mark Weaver is an award-winning
national political consultant and
election law attorney. Over the last 28
years, he has advised more than 700
political campaigns in 18 states. ORA
Director of Government Affairs Richard
Mason sat down with Mark to pick his
brain on the upcoming election.